Every year in the final week of the NFL regular season, many teams on the brink of clinching a playoff spot typically rely on not only the outcome of its own Week 18 game, but other games outside of its control.
Fortunately, for the Colts (9-7), it’s simple; win and you’re in.
Indianapolis controls its own destiny when it hosts Houston on Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium. Only the Texans can prevent the Colts from returning to the postseason for the first time in three years.
If the Colts are victorious, then the question heading into Sunday becomes whether they will possess a wild card spot or be crowned the AFC South division winner.
How Can The Colts Win The Division?
In addition to needing to beat Houston on Saturday, the Colts will also need the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) to lose or tie on Sunday when they travel to face the Tennessee Titans in order to finish first in the AFC South.
Even though the Colts and Jags each currently have the exact same, identical record of nine wins and seven losses, Jacksonville holds the tiebreaker over Indianapolis from winning both of their home & away meetings this season.
As Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence missed this past weekend’s game due to a shoulder injury, snapping his streak of 49 consecutive starts, his status heading into Week 18 remains unknown.
An AFC South division title for the Colts would end a nine-year drought, guarantee a home playoff game, and help solidify head coach Shane Steichen’s already impressive resume as a legitimate Coach Of The Year candidate (although he’d still have stiff competition from Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski and Detroit’s Dan Campbell).
What If The Colts and Texans Tie On Saturday?
If Indianapolis and Houston finish in a draw after 70 minutes of play, then Indianapolis would need at least one of the following external factors to guarantee a playoff spot.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, who travel to Baltimore and kick off earlier on Saturday, would need to lose to the Ravens. With the Colts holding the tiebreaker over the Steelers thanks to Week 15’s victory last month, a Steelers loss + Colts tie would at minimum guarantee Indianapolis the last remaining no. 7 AFC wild card seed.
However, if Jacksonville still loses on Sunday versus Tennessee, then the Colts’ final regular season record in the scenario of a tie versus Houston (9-7-1) would still be enough to win the AFC South, regardless of the Steelers versus Ravens outcome.
Who Could The Colts Potentially Face In The Playoffs?
In the best case scenario that the Colts not only make the playoffs, but also win the division, they will be no higher than the no. 4 seed in the AFC. Otherwise, if Jacksonville wins, Indianapolis will be the sixth or seventh seed as a wild card, even with a win over Houston.
If the Colts are fourth, then they will host the Cleveland Browns, who are already locked in as the AFC’s no. 5 seed, in what would be a regular season rematch from Week 7. This would be Indianapolis’ first home playoff game since January 2015.
Buffalo and Miami face off on Sunday night to officially close out the regular season. Coupled with a Jaguars win, the Colts will capture the no. 6 seed if the Dolphins win (since they would hold the tiebreaker over the Bills with a better conference record), or the no. 7 seed if the Bills win.
If no. 6, then Indy would travel down I-70 West to Arrowhead Stadium to face Patrick Mahomes and company, as the Kansas City Chiefs are already set as the AFC’s no. 3 seed.
Otherwise, if the Colts end up as no. 7, their opponent will more than likely be the Bills out east in the frozen tundra of Buffalo. If the Bills versus Dolphins game ends in a tie, however, then the Colts would travel down to South Florida to play Miami, as the Dolphins would still retain the no. 2 seed.
One Game At A Time
While it’s fun to speculate, calculate, and predict exactly where the Colts could possibly end up finishing in what has been a hard-fought battle of a season, the approach and objective going into Week 18 doesn’t change. And no one knows this better than Shane Steichen.
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